We Don’t Have Everything We Need to Realize Quantum Computing’s Potential—Yet

Photo: Interlune Customer Maybell Quantum “Big Fridge,” which uses helium-3 to reach a base temperature below 10 millikelvins (mK).‍

Using quantum computers to solve previously unsolvable problems is no longer science fiction; it’s quickly becoming science fact. 

The potential of these innovations will break the bounds of human knowledge in ways we still can’t quite fully grasp, including improving medical therapies, predicting (and avoiding) environmental damage, supercharging agriculture to feed the planet, helping to create fusion energy, and much more – and in the process, translating into trillions of dollars in economic value.

The quantum sector is drawing investment from both public and private sources. Last year, venture capital investments topped $1.5 billion, nearly double the amount from the previous year. Globally, governments and industry have collectively invested a whopping $42 billion to date. U.S. federal investment alone has nearly doubled in the last five years from over $400 million to more than $800 million per year.

More, please

Even with all of that momentum, one thing could potentially limit or delay quantum computing’s advancement: the lack of a sufficient supply of helium-3. Helium-3 is a stable (non-radioactive) isotope of helium used in dilution refrigerators that cool quantum devices to near-absolute zero temperatures. 

There are several different types of quantum computer architectures, and not all of them require such cold temperatures to operate. But for the “superconducting” type favored by quantum computing’s biggest players, only helium-3 can provide the refrigeration to operate the massive amounts of processors across vast networks of computers that are envisioned in order to achieve “quantum supremacy.”

Power in numbers

Quantum computing largely remains in the research and development phase, focusing on learning how to create and scale quantum computers, rather than fully leveraging their power. The number of these research computers remains low. Achieving quantum’s full potential will only be possible with computers that are much bigger, contain far more chips, and link those chips together at a massive scale.

This cannot be accomplished without more helium-3 for dilution refrigerators, the cryogenic devices that superconducting quantum computers require to maintain their ultra-low temperatures. But there is simply not nearly enough supply to support those ambitions.

The U.S. government has been rationing helium-3 for over a decade, reserving it for radiation detectors and other high-priority security applications where its unique properties offer a distinct advantage.

While there are untapped sources of helium-3, such as the small quantities present in our helium reserves, the total quantities are limited, and there is simply not enough helium-3 on Earth to support the growing needs of multiple industries, from national security to fusion, in the decades to come.

The visions of leading quantum computing companies depend on it. Microsoft announced earlier this year a breakthrough in building quantum computers at scale – the world’s first quantum processor powered by topological qubits. IBM recently unveiled its most performant quantum processor, the Quantum Heron, and expects to see general-purpose quantum computing by 2033. Amazon Web Services has developed an approach to quantum computing that is significantly more effective at correcting errors, while a development roadmap from IQM Quantum Computers aims to achieve “fault-tolerant quantum computing” by 2030. Google, for its part, plans to scale up to systems with millions of qubits.

Abundant helium-3 is within reach

Interlune has developed a roadmap to enable the growth of the quantum computing industry, with a plan to 10X the helium-3 supply by the early 2030s. We will sustainably harvest helium-3 on the Moon to support multiple industries, including quantum computing, unlocking unprecedented levels of technological innovation as we enter a new era of global competition. 

A ‘critical’ issue

The timing and stakes couldn’t be higher. In both quantum computing and space, we’re at serious risk of falling behind potential adversaries like China, which has already experimented with returning helium-3 from the Moon.

We have learned the hard way what it’s like to play catch-up on next-generation technologies, such as artificial intelligence and hypersonic missiles. The demands of this new era require us to treat both space and quantum technologies with high priority because of their outsized impact on our broader technological competitiveness.

One thing that can help is recognizing the criticality of helium-3, along with other critical minerals. For example, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) maintains a list of “mineral commodities critical to the U.S. economy and national security,” a government-wide effort to ensure the nation has sufficient quantities to meet these imperatives.

The USGS National Minerals Information Center tracks resources defined by the government as 'critical minerals' to understand dependencies across economic sectors, forecast potential disruptions, and evaluate their impact.

However, helium (in all forms) was removed from the USGS critical minerals list in 2022, while some of our allies, including the United Kingdom and Canada, retain helium on their lists. Reinstating helium and helium-3 on the U.S. list would acknowledge their importance in critical industries, such as quantum computing, and help spur greater action on helium-3 initiatives.

Looking ahead

We are committed to collaborating with our government leaders, including the Departments of Defense and Energy, as well as the United States Geological Survey (USGS), to secure greater supplies of helium-3, a crucial building block of the quantum future.

Quantum computing is one of the emerging technologies with the greatest potential to shape the future of humanity. If U.S.-based innovators don’t lead the way, including securing necessary resources like helium-3, someone else will. 

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